New Iranian Revolution

Following Iran's recently held presidential elections, there have been large protests in Tehran by supporters of reformist-candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi Khameneh. After early reports that the presidential race would be a close one between Mousavi Khameneh and incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, poll results were to the contrary, with Ahmadinejad taking over 60% of the votes. This has lead to widespread allegations of election fraud, rigging, and tampering. While there has yet to be an investigation, it is not unreasonable to believe that Ahmadinejad and loyal followers in the government have interfered in order to retain power.

What can we make of this? The Guardian Council (the ruling legislative body of ayatollahs) announced today there would be a recount of the votes, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme religious authority, has said that there will be an investigation into the claims of fraud. The large protests against Ahmadinejad and in favour of reformist candidates have continued, in the face of government bans, detaining of protesters, and recent bloodshed. While no longer a 'velvet revolution', like the one seen in the Ukraine several years ago, the popular move against Ahmadinejad could prove successful. If the Guardian Council and Ayatollah Khamenei are smart, they will appease the protestors and remove Ahmadinejad. Such a move would placate not only dissent at home, but would stand as a powerful message to the rest of the world that Iran is ready to re-engage with the US and other states. In any event, the stakes are huge, both for the better or for the worse.