Korean Standoff, Of A Sort

Earlier today, an unnamed North Korean Army spokesman was quoted by the Korean Central News Agency (North Korean state news) as saying: “Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels including search and seizure will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike.” This statement, reported by Reuters, adds to what has already been a busy week in the Koreas. Disregarding opposition and condemnation by the international community of its continued nuclear development program, North Korea test-fired three short range (130-kilometer) missiles from its missile base in Musudanri on May 25th. This was quickly followed by South Korea announcing it would join a U.S.-initiated undertaking that would allow the interception and search of vessels suspected of transporting weapons of mass destruction. And on Thursday, MSNBC reported that American and South Korean forces were placed on an increased alert level of readiness.

 

What can be taken from this past week? Difficult to say. Kim Jong-Il, at the age of 68, remains at the helm of arguably the last die hard communist state in the world, one with a lackluster economy, but of a highly militaristic nature (as evidenced by U.S. State Department estimates of active duty personnel near 1.2 million). It would also seem that he does not intend to leave the political scene voluntarily, having built a considerable cult of personality in the country. This is evidenced by the differences in accounts of Kim Jong-Il’s birth: while Soviet records, widely held as most reliable, state that Jong-Il was born in Siberia to his exiled father Il-Sung and his wife, North Korean records are very different. The DPRK claims that Jong-Il was “born in a log cabin at his father's guerilla base on North Korea's highest mountain, Mt Paektu…marked by a double rainbow, and a bright star in the sky. (news.bbc.co.uk)” Jong-Il shows no signs of giving in to the international community, despite renewed sanctions against the country and condemnation by the world leaders. Instead, he has persisted in flaunting increased pressure with recent displays of force in short- and medium-range missile exercises and covert nuclear tests, with stated long-range missile tests in the near future.

 

South Korea, has for a long time, had the backing of the United States. As of February 2009, American personnel in South Korea numbered 28,000, intended to deter the North from a reprise invasion of the South. It is reasonable to assume that American personnel will remain in the country for the foreseeable future, and the threat of the United States becoming involved, in the event of another North-South conflict, should be enough to put off the North Koreans. It returns to the notion of MAD – mutually assured destruction if a war shifts from conventional to ‘hot’, or nuclear.

 

The next few months will prove interesting, with regard to the proposed board-and-search plan. Undoubtedly, a less involved method will be researched, perhaps scaled-down technology similar to that used in American ports-of-entry that scan containers and vessels for NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) materials. It would achieve the goal of locating these dangerous substances, prevent their reaching the hands of transnational groups or other rogue nations, and not incite immediate armed action. This would be immensely more agreeable to possible stand-offs/conflicts on board vessels. Vessels that may or may not carry the aforementioned materials.